Intesa Sanpaolo earns EUR 8.2bn in nine months and lifts its 2026 profit outlook ahead of the MPS bid
Italy's largest bank beat analyst forecasts for the third quarter, now expects 2026 net income well above EUR 10 billion and is preparing to launch its offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
Intesa Sanpaolo reported net income of EUR 8,199 million for the first nine months of 2026 on 3 November, up 8.1% from EUR 7,588 million a year earlier. Third-quarter net income was EUR 2,645 million, compared with EUR 2,793 million in the second quarter and EUR 2,372 million in the third quarter of 2025.
According to Reuters, the quarterly profit beat an average analyst forecast of EUR 2.50 billion in an LSEG consensus. The bank upgraded its 2026 net income outlook to well above EUR 10 billion and approved an interim dividend of 22 euro cents per share, worth EUR 3.8 billion, payable on 25 November.
What Intesa reported
Operating income for the nine months rose 5% to EUR 21,457 million. Net interest income grew 2.3% to EUR 11,366 million, net fee and commission income rose 5.2% to EUR 7,718 million and income from the insurance business increased to EUR 1,451 million. Profits on financial assets and liabilities at fair value reached EUR 878 million, up from EUR 633 million.
Operating costs fell 1.3% to EUR 7,876 million, bringing the cost/income ratio down to 36.7% from 39.1% a year earlier. Operating margin rose 9% to EUR 13,581 million and gross income rose 9.4% to EUR 12,637 million. Net adjustments to loans fell to EUR 634 million and the annualised cost of risk was 19 basis points.
The third quarter
In the third quarter alone, net interest income rose 1.1% on the previous quarter to EUR 3,886 million, while fees slipped 1.1% to EUR 2,587 million. Fair value items swung to a negative EUR 27 million from a positive EUR 400 million in the second quarter, which pulled operating income down 6.2% quarter on quarter to EUR 6,924 million. Reuters reported that revenue of about EUR 7 billion was in line with analyst expectations, and that costs were flat on the quarter and 2.5% lower than a year earlier.
Capital, credit quality and payouts
The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.1% at the end of September after deducting EUR 7.8 billion accrued for distribution, or 13.8% including an estimated benefit of around 70 basis points from the absorption of deferred tax assets. The gross NPL ratio was 1.6% and the net ratio 0.8% under the EBA methodology, and the bank described its exposure to Russia as near zero.
Of the EUR 7.8 billion accrued for distribution, EUR 6.1 billion is earmarked for dividends. This comes on top of a EUR 2.3 billion share buyback that was concluded in October. For 2026 Intesa plans a payout ratio of 95%, with 75% through cash dividends and 20% through buybacks, subject to shareholder and ECB approvals. The interim dividend has a record date of 24 November.
Outlook
Intesa now expects 2026 net income well above EUR 10 billion, compared with an earlier forecast of above EUR 10 billion, and net interest income well above EUR 15 billion, with a further significant increase in 2027. The outlook includes the impact of Italy's 2026 budget law: Reuters said this means a EUR 900 million hit on 2026 earnings from higher taxes on banks, which the bank's release also cites as EUR 0.9 billion.
The Monte dei Paschi offer
The results came days before Intesa expects to launch its offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena. We reported earlier that MPS shareholders rejected the defence plan, clearing the way for Intesa. According to Reuters, Intesa is awaiting approval early next week from Italy's markets regulator for its share-and-cash bid of about EUR 33 billion, and the tender phase is expected to begin in about three weeks. The exchange ratio has been revised to 1.664 new Intesa shares for each MPS share tendered, from 1.6, to take the November interim dividend into account.
Il Sole 24 Ore reported the same headline numbers and noted that the quarterly profit compared with analyst expectations of EUR 2.5 billion. Italian news agency ANSA also described the nine-month profit as better than expected.
Technology, AI and startups
The bank continues to invest heavily in technology. It said it has deployed EUR 6.2 billion in technology investments from 2022 to the end of September 2026, has launched 33 AI, generative AI and agentic AI projects, and runs around 71% of its applications in the cloud. Its digital bank Isybank has around 1.3 million customers. Intesa Sanpaolo Innovation Center carried out 410 innovation initiatives and start-up services in the nine months, and Neva SGR managed EUR 11.7 million of investments in start-ups.
What it means for European founders and investors
Large European banks are posting strong profits even as interest rates have come down, thanks to fees, insurance and tight cost control. For fintech founders, Intesa's focus on wealth management, advisory networks and AI-driven process automation shows where incumbents are spending and where partnerships are most likely. A bank that plans to cut around 6,100 staff by 2029 while hiring young advisers is a buyer of automation tools.
Consolidation is the other theme. If the MPS offer succeeds, Italian banking would become even more concentrated, which matters for SMEs and startups that depend on a small number of lenders. For a wider view of European results season, see our coverage of Philips, Adyen and Sanofi.
What happens next
Shares go ex-dividend with coupon presentation on 23 November and the interim dividend is paid on 25 November. Investors will watch for regulatory approval of the MPS offer document and the start of the tender period.
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